Not for the people watching migrants, but for the birds themselves.
If we look at Windy.com, it shows the wind direction and speed. It looks like this:
We’re focused on the southern tip of Texas. The arrows indicate the direction the wind is blowing. The length of the arrows indicates speed. For migrants making the 600-mile crossing of the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula, a tailwind is a good thing. Less effort to get across the water. A safer trip.
The best conditions for bird watching are for there to be a strong wind from the north. That means that all the birds that make it across the Gulf will be exhausted and will stop and rest at the first sight of land. That’s where we get to see them. South Padre Island is the closest spot to here, but it happens all up and down the Texas Coast and over into Florida.
You can get a live reading on Windy here:
If you click the link, there should be an animation running. You can see how the air is moving throughout the region. On the bottom of the screen is a list of days. If we click on each day, we can scroll through the projected wind for the next two weeks. It doesn’t change at all. Nothing but tailwind and happy birds. No fronts. No major shifts. No north winds.
The busiest days for migration are usually the last week of April and the first week of May. As far as good conditions for the watchers, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this year. There will still be migrants to see on the coast, but probably not any massive fallouts with migrants landing in overwhelming numbers.