We heard that the rate of spread of the Corona Virus was that the number of cases would double every week. A logarithmic scale like that is a scary scenario. At the time, Governor Cuomo guessed that he had 1,000 cases, diagnosed and undiagnosed, and made the prediction that if left unchecked, his state would be dealing with 64,000 infected people in six weeks. That’s how the math works.
So I watched for an easy number to track. Last Tuesday the total number of reported cases in the U.S. on the daily news topped 1,000; that’s my baseline. If the governor’s prediction held, that number should be 2,000 by this Tuesday; today. Seven days have passed. The number of cases in the U.S. just passed 6,000. That represents 2 ½ doublings in my first week of careful attention. A very scary start indeed.
All of a sudden, out of nowhere, all over the globe we’re fighting for our lives, interestingly by doing nothing. Go home. Stay home. Don’t go out if you don’t have to. Close everything that’s not a pharmacy or grocery store. Measures that would be fine for a week or two, but long-term are just not sustainable. This is not a one or two week problem. It’s going to go on for months, not weeks. Plan on at least a year, probably more. Even after its peak, the virus will continue to be a problem until there is a vaccine or treatment for it. Imagine the cabin fever if we just do what we’re doing today. How many people have the reserves to wait this out? No money. Can’t pay the rent. Can’t pay the utilities. Can’t buy food. Economic collapse. Not sustainable.
We’ll all do what we need to do right now, as long as we can, but after the curve flattens and we’ve made it past the medical facility overload; at some point we’re going to have to suck it up, just start living again, and take our lumps.
